The 2021 Major League Baseball season may still be months away with a busy offseason ahead, but it's never too early to project how teams are shaping up for the new year.
The New York Yankees still have yet to sort out the futures of a handful of free agents like DJ LeMahieu and Masahiro Tanaka, among others, but thanks to Dan Szymborski's "ZiPS Projections" on FanGraphs, Yankees fans can get an early glimpse of how the team might perform next season.
How do ZiPS Projections work? Per the official MLB Glossary, "ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections." It is "widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry."
Excluding free agents, here's a look at how some key returning Yankees are projected to perform in 2021.
Position Players
Gleyber Torres: 594 PA, 85 R, .284 BA, 25 2B, 33 HR, 106 RBI, 4.4 WAR
Aaron Judge: 499 PA, 82 R, .255 BA, 17 2B, 33 HR, 88 RBI, 4.3 WAR
Giancarlo Stanton: 527 PA, 79 R, .250 BA, 23 2B, 38 HR, 111 RBI, 3.2 WAR
Luke Voit: 509 PA, 77 R, .270 BA, 21 2B, 31 HR, 97 RBI, 2.9 WAR
Gio Urshela: 508 PA, 68 R, .283 BA, 28 2B, 18 HR, 79 RBI, 2.5 WAR
Aaron Hicks: 459 PA, 67 R, .239 BA, 19 2B, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 2.4 WAR
Mike Tauchman: 416 PA, 58 R, .260 BA, 20 2B, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 2.1 WAR
Clint Frazier: 474 PA, 62 R, .242 BA, 23 2B, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 1.2 WAR
Gary Sanchez: 448 PA, 59 R, .212 BA, 14 2B, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 1.1 WAR
Miguel Andujar: 498 PA, 55 R, .267 BA, 29 2B, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 0.7 WAR
Tyler Wade: 411 PA, 51 R, .221 BA, 16 2B, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 0.3 WAR
Pitchers
Gerrit Cole: 32 G, W-L: 16-8, 3.21 ERA, 193.1 IP, 260 K/49 BB, 5.1 WAR
Luis Severino: 19 G, W-L: 9-5, 3.64 ERA, 113.2 IP, 124 K/30 BB, 2.4 WAR
Domingo German: 26 G, W-L: 10-8, 4.38 ERA, 127.1 IP, 140 K/41 BB, 1.8 WAR
Chad Green: 56 G, W-L: 6-3, 3.04 ERA, 71.0 IP, 99 K/20 BB, 1.8 WAR
Deivi Garcia: 26 G, W-L: 9-7, 4.31 ERA, 112.2 IP, 134 K/51 BB, 1.6 WAR
Jordan Montgomery: 20 G, W-L: 5-4, 4.15 ERA, 93.1 IP, 90 K/31 BB, 1.5 WAR
Aroldis Chapman: 48 G, W-L: 3-1, 2.62 ERA, 44.2 IP, 75 K/22 BB, 1.3 WAR
Jonathan Loaisiga: 25 G, W-L: 4-3, 4.06 ERA, 62.0 IP, 68 K/21 BB, 1.0 WAR
Luis Cessa: 35 G, W-L: 3-2, 4.20 ERA, 79.1 IP, 73 K/31 BB, 0.8 WAR
Adam Ottavino: 62 G, W-L: 6-3, 3.48 ERA, 54.1 IP, 76 K/32 BB, 0.8 WAR
Zack Britton: 52 G, W-L: 3-2, 3.72 ERA, 46.0 IP, 43 K/24 BB, 0.6 WAR
These projections are useful to help envision what kind of production can be expected from these players, but of course they are no guarantee. There's still plenty of offseason personnel moves that can take place as well, so the roster might feature a few more names and familiar faces by Opening Day 2021.
Until then, fans can follow along with the ZiPS model until real baseball begins again next spring, and Yankees fans can tune in to Yankees Hot Stove returning this week on YES Network (Wednesday, 7 p.m.) for all the latest discussions and potential scenarios the Bombers may face this winter.
