The Dirty Dozen - League Division Series Previews
Key subplots to watch in the first round of the MLB playoffs
to the bench in Game 2. (AP)
New York Yankees (103-59, AL East champion) vs. Minnesota Twins (87-76 AL Central champion)
1. Jorge Posada has every reason to complain about sitting on the bench when A.J. Burnett starts in favor of Jose Molina. Though Burnett's numbers have been better this season with Molina catching him, Catcher ERA is a dubious stat that often shows little consistency on a year-to-year basis.
Even if Burnett just wants the psychological lift that comes with throwing to a catcher with whom he feels more comfortable, it's a stretch to say that such a placebo effect trumps the Grand Canyon-sized gap between Posada's potent bat and Molina's offensive ineptitude. The contrast is especially huge at Yankee Stadium. A park tailor-made for his lefty swing when he bats from that side of the plate, Posada hit an off-the-charts .325/.400/.613 at home this season, compared to Molina's .207/.299/.241. The Yankees do have plenty of other offensive weapons, but to willfully decide to punt offense, given Posada's potential to destroy Twins' Game 2 righty starter Nick Blackburn, is just foolish.
2. Joe Mauer deserves the AL MVP trophy he's likely to win this season. And yes, the bottom three of the Twins' lineup, Delmon Young, Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto, collectively resemble the 20-134 1899 Cleveland Spiders. But the Twins do run out a pair of lefty batters not named Mauer (or the injured Justin Morneau) who can do some damage. Jason Kubel emerged as a middle-of-the-order threat, hitting .300/.369/.529 with 28 homers and 103 RBIs (the latter obviously helped by Mauer's huge on-base prowess). Meanwhile, leadoff hitter Denard Span might be the most underrated player in baseball. The 25-year-old hit .311, posted a .392 OBP, stole 23 bases and played solid defense all year long. Don't call these Twins piranhas. Four really good hitters (you can add Michael Cuddyer and his .862 OPS), the capable Orlando Cabrera and Jose Morales, and three stiffs, is more like it.
3. Get ready for plenty of criticism and doubt over CC Sabathia's 2-3, 7.92 record in the postseason. Then remember this: 25 innings isn't evidence of anything. Plenty of all-time greats have struggled in the postseason at various times, only to come back strong later on. Roger Clemens had his shares of tough times, but he was also lights-out in the 1999 World Series and 2001 World Series, to name just two top performances. Barry Bonds couldn't shake his reputation as a playoff choker until he put on one of the most dominant hitting displays in postseason history in 2002. Sabathia may or may not fare well this postseason, but we shouldn't assume much about his makeup either way.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (97-65 AL West champion) vs. Boston Red Sox (95-67, AL Wild Card winner)
1. The Red Sox will have a clear edge in starting pitching in this series. After John Lackey, the Angels are filled with rotation question marks, with recent standouts like Kelvim Escobar, Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders now either injured, ineffective, or both. Meanwhile, the Red Sox rotation is led by Jon Lester, who's emerged as one of the top starters in the game in the past two years, with a 15-8 record and a 3.41 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in '09. Add in capable playoff veteran Josh Beckett and emerging young star Clay Buchholz and the Sox are well positioned for a deep playoff run.
2. Remember the old Angels, those scrappy teams who always hit for a high average, rarely walked or hit homers, and looked for unconventional ways to score runs? The Angels still hit for a high average (MLB-leading .285), but they also slugged .441 (5th in MLB) and moved up from 25th in walks in 2008 to a respectable 17th in '09. The acquisition of Bobby Abreu reshaped the identity of the team, in a good way. While Abreu was a very good but slightly redundant aging on-base guy with the Yankees, he was a breath of fresh air for the Angels, putting up a .390 OBP, drawing 94 walks and swiping 30 bases.
3. There may be no bigger gap between two teams in any category of any series than with these two teams' bullpens. The Red Sox added veteran lefty Billy Wagner to a bullpen nucleus that include front-line closer Jonathan Papelbon, fireballing rookie set-up man Daniel Bard and veteran Japanese import Hideki Okajima. Meanwhile, the Angels have struggled mightily without Francisco Rodriguez, as new closer Brian Fuentes has given up nearly 13 baserunners per nine innings. The setup corps is also overmatched by Boston's depth.
St. Louis Cardinals (91-71, NL Central champion) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67, NL West champion)
1. The Cardinals would seem to have a huge edge on the starting pitching side. Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (19-6, 2.62 ERA) are two of the three top contenders for the NL Cy Young award (along with the Giants' Tim Lincecum) and No. 3 starter Joel Pineiro has been a classic Dave Duncan reclamation project, turning himself into an extreme groundball/control specialist (15-12, 3.49 ERA). Meanwhile, the Dodgers' top two starters in this series are Randy Wolf, a veteran lefty who's battled back from years of injuries, and lefty Clayton Kershaw, who's just barely old enough to drink.
So here's the Dodgers' ace in the hole: Despite trotting out two of the most terrifying right-handed hitters in the game in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, the Cardinals rank dead last in MLB vs. left-handed starters with a 674 OPS. Wolf and Kershaw could give the Cardinals unexpected fits.
2. The Dodgers all but backed into the playoffs, barely holding off the Rockies to win the NL West, losing five of their last seven regular-season games and watching their presumed ace, Chad Billingsley, fall into a late-season slump. Luckily for the Dodgers, there's no historical evidence to suggest that teams are more likely to lose if they come into the playoffs on a cold streak, rather than a hot streak (after adjusting for overall team records and other variables).
3. Though the Cardinals trot out plenty of marquee players in Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter and Wainwright, the supporting cast played a big role of their success this season. The best story might be Brendan Ryan. For years an unassuming fringe prospect and utility player whose future was so uncertain he spent his offseasons playing on the same L.A.-area softball team as a sportswriter buddy of mine, Ryan became a big asset for the Cardinals this year. Seizing the starting shortstop job, he put up an impressive line of .292 AVG/.340 OBP/.400 SLG and played outstanding defense. If you're looking for a Mark Lemke-type playoff hero to back this postseason, Ryan is your guy.
Philadelphia Phillies (93-69 NL East champion) vs. Colorado Rockies (92-70 NL Wild Card winner)
1. The big story in this series, and throughout the playoffs, is how the Phillies' bullpen holds up. Brad Lidge has undergone one of the most hideous year-to-year transformations in Major League history, parlaying his 1.95 ERA in 2008 into a 7.21 mark this season. Lidge's bullpen running mate, Chad Durbin, saw his ERA balloon from 2.88 last season to 4.39 in '09. Effective '08 lefty J.C. Romero walked more batters than he struck out in '09 before missing the rest of the season due to an elbow injury. Ryan Madson has retained much of last year's effectiveness, but overall this is nowhere near the shutdown bullpen the Phillies had last year. Unless Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels can go deep into every start, and the team gets tons of offense from their big bats, Phillies fans should be worried.
2. Rockies right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez is a phenom waiting to happen, if he hasn't happened already. Owner of the fastest average fastball in the majors according to the terrific stats and analysis site FanGraphs.com, Jimenez was outstanding this year, going 15-12 with a 3.47 ERA. Strip out the hitter-friendly effects of Coors Field and place him in, say, pitcher-friendly Petco Park, and Jimenez may have put up numbers that could've propelled him into Cy Young consideration too. Jimenez is merely one of several effective starting pitchers on an underrated staff that could play a big role in Colorado's success, especially in longer series. It's a tribute to the depth of the staff that the Rockies might not miss Jorge de la Rosa, a strikeout-per-inning lefty who suffered a groin injury in his last start of the season and will miss the LDS as a result. Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel could ably pick up the slack.
3. Both team's shortstops are most definitely 'With Leather.' Both traditional metrics and more advanced stats rate the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki and the Phillies' Jimmy Rollins among the best defensive shortstops in the game. The Rockies may be better equipped to take advantage of this strength with a more groundball-oriented staff, but the Phillies can double down with Chase Utley, himself a vacuum cleaner at second base.
Predictions:
Yankees in 3
Red Sox in 4
Cardinals in 4
Rockies in 4
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