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THEY BEEN THERE BEFORE THEMSELEVES
You can talk about the insects, the ones that Joba Chamberlain said, in what was probably an unintended pun, "bugged" him. They almost certainly contributed to his uncharacteristic wildness. Most of us are phobic enough about having one insect land on us; Chamberlain was covered in writhing clumps of the critters. No doubt his skin was crawling figuratively as well as literally. Many observers have commented on the Yankees' decision not to carry a left-handed reliever in this series, but no one had argued that they should have brought a squad of trained bats with them as well.

In truth, the absence of the lefty figured just as strongly as the lack of bats. In the fatal 11th inning, the Yankees were confronted with left-handed hitters Kenny Lofton, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner, as well as switch-hitter Asdrubal Cabrera. All of those hitters are weaker against southpaws (Cabrera hit lefties well in a small major league sample, but his more extensive minor league record suggests he's a weaker hitter from the right side). Had the Yankees possessed a strong lefty reliever, maybe any lefty reliever, this would have been the spot for him. Instead, wild Luis Vizcaino, who was not at his best against lefties this year (.265/.362/.427) was forced to serve.

So blame the bugs if you like. They played their part. But also cast a wider net back to the decision, once Mike Myers was released and Sean Henn proved incapable, to simply accept the situation. Sure, the Angels got through the postseason without lefty relievers a few years ago, and it's always better to stock your pen with a good righty if your only alternative is a mediocre lefty. The Yankees, though, aren't in that position. The Angels had a pen full of strong right-handers. The Yankees have a pen full of bananas. If a trade wasn't possible, they should have been cycling through their minor league options, however weak. Salvage project Ben Kozlowski held lefties to a .178 average at Scranton this year. The Yankees might have gotten lucky. They didn't need Sparky Lyle, just someone who might have been decent for a few weeks. Stranger things have happened-Guillermo Mota had a 1.00 ERA in 18 innings for the Mets last year.

The Yankees have been down 2-0 in the Divisional Series before and come back. They did it against the A's in 2001. The series opened in New York, where Roger Clemens lasted just four innings. Sterling Hitchcock and Jay Witasick then came in and poured gas on the fire. Meanwhile, the Yankees could do little with Mark Mulder, and a rally against former Yankee Jim Mecir fell short. In the second game, Andy Pettitte faced Tim Hudson. It was a classic pitcher's duel. Pettitte allowed a solo home run to Ron Gant leading off the fourth. Hudson dealt only zeroes. The Yankees continually put runners on only to see them stranded, and they ultimately went down to a 2-0 defeat.

The scene shifted to Oakland. Mike Mussina opposed Barry Zito. Though Zito was excellent, allowing just two hits and one run (a Jorge Posada homer) in eight innings, Mussina was more effective, shutting out the A's through seven before yielding to Mariano Rivera for a two-inning save. Game 4 pitted Orlando Hernandez against Corey Lidle. The Yankees knocked Lidle out early, putting up seven runs in the first four innings. El Duque was not at his best that day, but he held the lead before turning the game over to the bullpen for 3.1 innings of scoreless relief.

The series was tied. Clemens and Mulder would square off again in the final game. It looked bad for the Yankees early, with the A's putting up single runs in the first and second. The Yankees tied the game up in the bottom of the second on a bases loaded single by Alfonso Soriano, then sent ahead in the third on an unearned run. They added another single run in the fourth on a Jeter sacrifice fly. Clemens continued to struggle, and Joe Torre pulled him in the top of the fifth for Mike Stanton, but it was too late to prevent another run. The A's had closed to 4-3. That would prove to be Oakland's high-water mark. Stanton, Ramiro Mendoza, and Mariano Rivera held the A's to one hit over the remainder of the game. The Yankees would add one more run and win the game 5-3. The Yankees team of 2001 was very different from that of 2007. The latter is an offensive juggernaut. The former was not. The key to the series in 2001 was New York's ability to extend or survive their starting pitching with a strong bullpen. The 2007 bullpen doesn't answer to "strong." This year, pitching is something the Yankees don't live off of their pitching, they survive it.

Still, there is hope. Over the next two games the Indians will pitch Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd, not bad pitchers, perhaps, but far from the dominating quality of a C.C. Sabathia or Fausto Carmona. Yankees bats should revive, so much will depend on Roger Clemens' ability to pull one more good start out of his aging body, to follow his friend Pettitte with a performance worthy of Andy's Game 2 start.

If the Yankees can win Game 3, it will be decision time. Torre has expressed his confidence in Mike Mussina, but there are reasons to rethink that with the season on the line. In 29.2 September innings, Phil Hughes had a 2.73 ERA. Mussina's was 3.49-not bad, but it followed the carnage of August. Mussina was also battered in his final start of the year. Lefties, so crucial to the Indians' attach, hit .315/.348/.456 against the Moose. They hit Hughes as well-.264/.358/.488-less often than Mussina, but with more power. It's worth noting that righties couldn't touch Hughes, hitting just .210/.269/.294 against him, whereas they hit over .300 against Mussina-Hughes has a better chance of dancing between the raindrops.

But that's an argument for Sunday night or Monday morning. Before the Yankees get there, they have to survive Sunday. What a story-the Lone Ranger rides again. Roger Clemens, a blaze of glory, the judgment of history. Love or hate the Yankees, you're not a baseball fan if you don't relish the drama.

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FRIDAY, October 5: Posted at 5:15 p.m. ET

We'll keep this short: last night's loss can be laid directly at the feet of Chien-Ming Wang, who didn't execute. It's time to acknowledge one fact about Wang: his home-road split, which greatly favors Yankee Stadium, is purely psychological. As an extreme groundball pitcher, he should be invulnerable to any change of environment other than playing on a pockmarked, bomb-cratered field. That he pitches poorly away from the House that Ruth Built, issuing walks that he cannot afford due to his inability to strike out opposing batters, is a matter of emotion, not skill or atmospheric disruption due to being away from the Bronx air.

The home-road divide would be different were Wang an extreme fly ball pitcher. Imagine a pitcher like Sid Fernandez, the beefy Mets lefty who went through entire games without getting a grounder. In Shea Stadium, which was a tough hitter's park at the time, he put up an ERA of 2.52. At Wrigley Field, small and windy, his career ERA was 7.17.

Wang doesn't deal with those issues. No matter where he pitches, the distance from home plate to the second baseman's glove is the same. They don't put spiked pits in the infield away from Yankee Stadium. Lions are not freed to maul Derek Jeter as he reaches for a double play grounder. It's all the same. Wang should be the same immutable, stoic worm-killer on the road that he is at home. Unfortunately, his confidence level is simply not the same. Based on this game and his last start at Boston, those feelings of insecurity are doubled with two outs in an inning and runners on.

The other culprit was Joe Torre. First, after hinting all week that Shelley Duncan would get to start against C.C. Sabathia, he stayed with the slumping Hideki Matsui at designated hitter. Matsui is normally not troubled by lefties, but Sabathia is a special case, a pitcher who not only didn't allow lefty hitters to get to first base this year, he didn't even give them a chaste peck on the cheek.

Then there was the in-game handling of the bullpen. Wang's relief needed to come sooner. It's understandable that Torre was reluctant to go to the bullpen early and burn out the relievers for a lost cause on day one, but the game still may have been salvageable before the onslaught began in the bottom of the fifth.

Finally, throwing Phil Hughes into the game in trash time... Let's give Torre the benefit of the doubt and say that he figured there was a little at stake and he was trying to see if Hughes the reliever might undergo a Chamberlain-ish transformation. It doesn't seem as if the appearance will cost the Yankees' Hughes services where they might really need them, long relieving (in the same sense that Ernie Shore's no-hitter in relief of Babe Ruth was long relief) after a sudden catastrophic failure on the part of Roger Clemens or Mike Mussina.

But you know all of this, and one game does not put the Yankees in fatal jeopardy. They hit Game 2 starter Fausto Carmona fairly well this year, and experienced Andy Pettitte can be expected to have more fortitude than Wang — which doesn't mean he'll pitch well. Matsui remains a question mark. Note that the Indians have retained Kenny Lofton, who hit .223/.290/.255 against lefties this year (and similarly last year) in the lineup against Pettitte, Jason Michaels being added at the expense of Franklin Guitterez. Guttierez hits lefties well, so either there's an injury or Eric Wedge is subscribing to the theory that Pettitte can be harder on righties than he is on lefties.

I'LL BE BACK...
With reaction to tonight's game, appearing late this evening or tomorrow morning, so check back for a Saturday installment of the Pinstriped Blog.

CHAT TRANSCRIPT
I held a long, typically wide-ranging chat at Baseball Prospectus during the first six innings of the game last night, the transcript of which can be found here.

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THURSDAY, October 4: Posted at 5:15 p.m. ET

CONTINUING THE AL DIVISION SERIES PREVIEW: THE ROTATION, THE BULLPEN, THE MANAGERS

THE PITCHERS: For the stats here, I've chosen to stay basic again, going with the nuts and bolts material. "BABIP" stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. League average in this category was .308. A BABIP dramatically lower than that mark suggests that the pitcher had terrific defense behind him, a long run of good luck, or both. An average significantly higher than the average mark would argue for the opposite conclusion-bad defense, bad luck. Both the Indians' and Yankees' defenses were middle of the pack in terms of turning balls in play into outs.

Tonight's matchup symbolizes the problem for the Yankees in the first two games of this series. Wang is a very good pitcher. Sabathia is a very good pitcher2. His control this year was extraordinary, with just 1.4 walks issued per nine innings. He's also left-handed, which could cause problems for the majority of hitters in the Yankees lineup-Sabathia held left-handed hitters to .203/229/.217 with just three home runs in 202 at bats. Given these numbers, Joe Torre's decision to keep Shelley Duncan on the bench in Game One is a bit odd.

Now, the Yankees haven't seen Sabathia for several years, so we don't have a convincing track record of interactions to play with here-the old stats are hardly relevant, because Sabathia has greatly matured and improved since then. In addition, it would seem like the long gap between confrontations would work in Sabathia's favor; the Yankees tend to struggle against pitchers they've never seen before.

Sabathia has exceeded his career high in innings pitched by 31 this year, and he's going to be pushed hard in this first game. We'll see if the stress has any impact either tonight or in a possible Game 5 return.

You know Wang; often the grounders find fielders, but sometimes they don't. His September 15 start at Boston, which resulted in a 10-1 loss, was an intense microcosm of Wang's one flaw: because it's tough to get extra-base hits against him, it takes a chain of several hits to score off of him. If that chain does form, however, look out; he's unlikely to get a strikeout to diffuse the bomb that's about to go out, so more balls are sent into the field of play and bad things happen. Wang had one of the highest percentage of line drives allowed; when he elevated the ball, batters had no problem turning his pitches around. Note that lefty hitters batted .286/.344/.419 against Wang this year. That's a problem when facing the Indians-as is Wang's career home-road split, with an ERA of 3.04 at Yankee Stadium and 4.62 elsewhere on the planet. EDGE: Indians.

Early in the season, the Indians were on the verge of sending Carmona out, and had actually announced the move. Jake Westbrook chose that moment to get hurt, so the Indians rescinded the papers and Carmona stayed, blossoming into one of the baseball's groundball machines. Carmona led the American League in both percentage of balls in play that were grounders and lowest percentage of line drives. Note that he even beat out Wang in the grounder category (too bad Carmona and Wang aren't facing each other in a groundball-to-the-death battle). Unlike Wang, Carmona's opponents swing and miss occasionally. Lefties were able to make contact for singles; righties had trouble doing that, though when Carmona made a mistake against them, it went out of the park-10 of his 16 home runs allowed were hit by righties, whereas the batting average against him by normal-handers was just .216. Carmona finished the season on a roll, posting a 2.26 ERA in the second half, 1.78 in September. The Yankees beat Carmona twice this year, but not in a way that suggests a true vulnerability.

Andy Pettitte's ERA in September was 5.86; he pitched well three times in six starts but was otherwise bombed by the Devil Rays, Red Sox, and Orioles. Although Pettitte had many good starts, he allowed a great many hits. As has been the case throughout his career, left-handed hitters fared better against him than righties, hitting .298/.356/.480. That's the average left-hander. You'd like that guy in your lineup as a regular. Scary. EDGE: Indians.

Let's dispense with the EDGE right now: We don't know. Clemens is supposed to be ready to go, but there's no certainty that the 45-year-old has anything left in the tank, or won't have to pull himself in the third. Clemens was, on the whole, a good pitcher this year, but not the Cy Young winner of old. He had back to back eight-inning, one-run starts in early July, but the rest of the campaign didn't rise to that level, Clemens mixing some strong six-inning starts with a number of egregiously bad blowouts. Which Clemens we get-good, bad, or none at all-will go a long way to determining the outcome. Westbrook is not a great pitcher, but he finished the season strong and as far as we know he's all there. His second-half 3.44 ERA is more indicative of his abilities than his injury-induced struggles in the first half.

Byrd is a control/pitch-to-contact guy who Yankees hitters should be able to handle. In their one confrontation this year, the Bombers did indeed bomb him. The problem here is that Mussina is just as likely to get bombed as Byrd. His last start of the year did not go as well as his previous three (against the relatively lightweight Blue Jays and Orioles), and given the course of the year as a whole, it is much more likely that the bad is the better indicator than the good. Phil Hughes would have been a better, bolder choice. Will this be the last ride of Torre's famous loyalty to vets? EDGE: None.

THE BULLPENS: In a nutshell, the Indians are laden with lefties. The Yankees are not. In the columns below, the numbers for Ross Ohlendorf and Jose Veras are from the minors rather than their short Yankees stints.

The Yankees were uncharacteristically creative with their bullpen assignments, stashing September call-ups Ohlendorf and Veras on the roster rather than more established but unreliable types like Brian Bruney, Edwar Ramirez, and Chris Britton. This is purely an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. This twist if more interesting than significant. The Indians have one of the best bullpens in the game this year, and top the Yankees everywhere but in the ninth inning. Wisely, they looked at the Yankees roster and stocked it with three lefties. In the middle innings, watch out for 22-year-old starter Laffey, who was hit hard by lefties (.322 batting average) but is yet another Indian that induces more than his share of grounders. Late, the Indians will call on Perez, who limited lefties to a cool .145. Somewhere in between is the veteran lefty Fultz. He's not a great pitcher, but also kept lefties under .200 this season. Righty setup man Rafael Betancourt had a season that isn't too different from what Joba Chamberlain might have done had he been with the Yankees for the full season.

Ex-Yankee Borowski is Cleveland's vulnerable spot. Although he led the league with 45 saves, he was often hit hard. In his one game against the Yankees this year, back on April 19, he was bombed for six runs in two-thirds of an inning, Josh Phelps and Alex Rodriguez smacking home runs against him. A-Rod's was a walk-off game-winner. This one outing aside, Borowski's ERA was 4.29.

The Yankees have elected to leave Ron Villone, their only semi-viable lefty reliever, off of the postseason roster. It's not a terrible idea if you believe that the pitchers that they did bring stand a better chance against lefties than he does. It's not out of the question. The bullpen remains as it has since Chamberlain came along: if he's in the game, great. If Rivera is in the game, great. If anyone else is in, ask the children and the dog to leave the room. EDGE: Indians.

THE MANAGERS: In his five-year career, Eric Wedge has been a conservative manager. Compared to the typical American League skipper, he hasn't called a lot of bunting or baserunning plays. The only area where he's been significantly out of the norm has been in his handling of the pitching staff. He's very slow to pull a starter, and as a result in past seasons his team saw quite a few good games go sour about the sixth inning. Even this year, with his bullpen showing more stability than in the past, Indians starters pitched more innings than any other team in the majors.

Wedge has had no postseason experience, so it will be interesting to see if he resists the temptation to over-manage to which so many first-timers succumb. Given his relatively passive record in the regular season, he seems better wired to resist than most. The big question will be if he's any faster on the bullpen trigger.

We know Joe Torre's record in the postseason. There are four World Series rings, and then there's Jeff Weaver. As with all of us, Torre is best when he can reduce his decision-tree to its most basic level. Unfortunately, the configuration of the roster means that he'll have many decisions to make (this is also the flipside to the much-improved bench). He'll have to decide when and if to pinch-hit for Doug Mientkiewicz, when to pinch-run for Hideki Matsui and his recuperating knee. The bullpen, with its two late additions and unreliable vets, will also force experimentation in any situation in which the Yankees don't get a solid six or seven innings out of their starters. Thinking ahead three innings is not Torre's strong suit, so we'll see. Still given experience and the possibility that Wedge won't call the firemen in until it's too late. We can be pretty sure that Torre won't do that.

WHO WINS: This is a tough, tough series for the Yankees. Their lineup is deep and powerful, and if they can lick the tough Cleveland starters early and get a lead, they'll be tough to beat. If Sabathia and Carmona hold them down and the Yankees have to play low-scoring, one-run games, they're going to be in a lot of trouble. THE CALL: It will go five games, the Yankees prevailing over a tired Sabathia in the last contest.

DIVISION SERIES CHAT I'll be doing a live chat at Baseball Prospectus.com on Thursday. I'll be starting at 6:00 PM, just before the Yankees and the Indians kick things off, and will take you through at least the first several innings of the game. The chat is open to all comers, and you can even get your questions in now if you like by hitting the link above. I look forward to watching the Yankees with you.

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WEDNESDAY, October 3: Posted at 9:36 p.m. ET

CONTINUING THE AL DIVISION SERIES PREVIEW:
THE BENCH AND STARTING ROTATION
The numbers for Chris Gomez, Jose Molina, and Wilsom Betemit are for their full season rather than just their Indians or Yankees stints. Bronson Sardinha's numbers are from the minors. Once again, "EQA," represents Equivalent Average, a Baseball Prospectus.com stat that sums up a hitter's total offensive contributions in one number that scales the way batting average does: .265 is about average, .300 is very good, .220 is very bad.

This is the best bench that Joe Torre has carried into the postseason in some time. There's just no comparison with the collection of has-beens and never-weres (Clay Bellinger/Todd Greene/Luis Sojo/Randy Verlarde/Enrique Wilson in 2001, for example) that the Yankees have had on the bench in the recent past. The Yankees have a lefty power threat in Giambi, a righty power threat in Duncan, an infield sub who can hit with some pop in Betemit (even though he struggled to hit for average this year), and a reserve catcher who showed surprising life with the bat in a Yankees uniform. Molina's age and career record is such that his .318 average in 71 plate appearances with the Yankees was likely little more than a small sample fluke, but it's still an improvement on previous models, who were incapable of even a random hot streak.

Though Giambi and Betemit have slumped recently, the presence of their power changes the way the opposing manager handles his bullpen and allow Torre to manipulate matchups-Giambi comes into the game, Eric Wedge calls in Rafael Perez. Torre replaces Giambi with Shelley Duncan, and suddenly the Indians are at a disadvantage.

As an unintended consequence of their decision not to carry any lefties in the bullpen, the Yankees are now the rare team not vulnerable to shooting themselves in the foot by bringing in a bad lefty instead of a good righty, or even bringing in a good lefty and immediately seeing the matchup undone by a pinch-hitter. The Yankees are carrying the pitchers they think best, period. As we discussed in Part One of this preview, the downside of this decision is that the Yankees won't be able to use southpaws against the Indians' three best hitters, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner. This could also affect the composition of the Indians' bench.

The Indians haven't confirmed their roster at this writing, so there's some guesswork involved here. We've covered aspects of the Indians' bench in the previous installment, as Nixon and Michaels are part of outfield platoons. In Nixon's case platoons might be past tense, as Franklin Guttierez played more often in the second half. He doesn't hit righties very well, but is more mobile than Nixon and has power. Nixon has hit 11 career home runs against the Yankees, every one seemingly at the worst possible time, but his skills have decayed to the point that those days are gone. Gomez is good for the odd single and can sub at all four infield positions. Shoppach killed lefties, knocking five home runs in just 34 at bats. Since the Yankees aren't carrying any lefties in the pen (more on this in our concluding bullpen section tomorrow), his pinch-hitting a late-inning home run against some Felix Heredia type is one circumstance we can safely predict won't arise in this series.

The pointless Barfield or the declining Nixon could be supplanted by outfielder Dave Dellucci, the starting left fielder through June, when an injury shelved him until the last days of September, or rookie Ben Francisco, who popped five doubles and three home runs in 62 at bats. Francisco, 25, is a career .294/.357/.464 hitter in the minors. Both he and Dellucci would give the Indians a better chance of an extra-base hit off the bench than would Barfield. Dellucci would also represent another left-handed hitter to whom the Yankees have now left-handed relief response.

Bronson Sardinha was the Yankees' first-round/supplemental pick in the 2001 draft. He hasn't remotely worked out and has very little chance of having a future in the bigs with any organization after this postseason cameo. Sardinha was tried at shortstop, third base, ball peen hammer, and cheese grater before landing in right field. As his minor league career averages (.266/.349/.407) suggest, he doesn't have the bat to support the position. This year at Scranton he hit .222/.306/.387-the rates above were boosted by some hot hitting at Double-A after a demotion. It's possible that Sardinha's lefty swing and ability to play both outfield and infield (if shakily) might win him a 25th man role someday, but even that seems unlikely at this juncture. As a pinch-runner, he's faster than the many station to station runners on the Yankees, but he's no Vince Coleman. No one on the Indians bench answers to that description either. Barfield is most likely to fill that role if he makes the team. EDGE: Yankees.

THURSDAY MORNING ON THE BLOGSIDE: All the pitchers, plus the managers.

DIVISION SERIES CHAT WITH ME, CHA CHA CHA
I'll be doing a live chat at Baseball Prospectus.com on Thursday. I'll be starting at 6:00 PM, just before the Yankees and the Indians kick things off, and will take you through at least the first several innings of the game. The chat is open to all comers, and you can even get your questions in now if you like by hitting the link above. I look forward to watching the Yankees with you.

CLICK HERE TO COMMENT