Ye Traditional Head To Head Playoff Preview
A look at Yankees-Indians yesterday and today
THE HISTORY: This will be the third time during the Joe Torre era that the Yankees and Indians meet in a postseason series, but the first since 1998. The two teams met in the first round in 1997, playing a memorable five-game series which turned on the bottom of the eighth inning in Game 4 at Jacobs Field. With the Yankees leading 2-1 going to the bottom of the eighth, closer Mariano Rivera came into the game for a two-inning save. Rivera retired the first batter he faced, but allowed a solo home run to Sandy Alomar to tie the game. The Indians won the game against Ramiro Mendoza in the bottom of the ninth. The next day, Jaret Wright and the Indians' pen outdueled Andy Pettitte for the series win.
The two teams met up again in the Championship Series round in 1998. The Yankees took the first game, at Yankee Stadium, but lost the second on a bizarre play in the top of the 12th inning. With Cleveland's Enrique Wilson on first, Travis Fryman bunted towards first base. Tino Martinez fielded the bunt and threw to Chuck Knoblauch covering at first, but Fryman was well out of the baseline. The throw hit him in the back and rolled behind Knoblauch. Rather than go after the ball, Knoblauch turned to argue with the umpire. Wilson and Fryman kept on running. By the time Knoblauch, who had failed to hear both his teammates and 57,000 fans screaming "Pick up the ball" in near-perfect unison, awoke to the danger, Wilson had scored the go-ahead run and Fryman was on third. The Indians scored two more in the inning. The Yankees were unable to come back in the bottom of the inning, and the Bombers went down to a 4-1 defeat.
The Indians pasted Pettitte in Game 3, and it looked as if the Yankees would be going home early despite their historic regular season. The next day the Yankees were rallied by shutout pitching by Orlando Hernandez, Mike Stanton, and Rivera, while a home run by Paul O'Neill helped knock Dwight Gooden out early. Game 5 also went to the Yankees behind strong pitching from David Wells, who struck out 11 Indians in seven innings. In Game 6, the Yankees took a 6-0 lead into the top of the fifth, but the Indians rallied off of a suddenly wild David Cone, Jim Thome hitting a grand slam. The Indians gave three runs back in the next inning, Derek Jeter plating two with a triple, and the Indians went quietly after that.
Taking a longer view, the Yankees and the Indians had a great rivalry in the 1940s and 50s, with the Tribe being more of an impediment to the Yankees than the Red Sox were during this period. In 1948, the Indians beat the third-place Yankees to the pennant by 2.5 games. The Indians finished second 1951-1953 and 1955-1956, and outdid the Yankees for the 1954 pennant 111 wins to 103. Though most remember the Yankees as running away with the American League during this period, the Indians were just five games out in 1951, two games out in 1952, and three games out in 1955.
There were many great confrontations between the Yankees and Indians during this period, but for the Yankees the standout moment took place in 1951. On September 16 of that year the two teams met at the Stadium for a two-game set. The Indians were leading the Yankees by one game with 10 to play (the numbers were a bit contorted because the Yankees had played five fewer games, so Cleveland, 90-54, had one more loss than the Yankees at 87-53). In the first game, Allie Reynolds outpitched Bob Feller by a score of 5-1. The second game matched New York's Ed Lopat against Cleveland's Bob Lemon. The game was tied 1-1 going to the bottom of the ninth. Lemon was still on the hill for the Tribe. The Yankees loaded the bases with one out, bringing Phil Rizzuto to bat. He and Rizzuto signaled to each other that the suicide squeeze was on. It was no secret everyone in the ballpark knew Rizzuto's style of play. After the game, Joe DiMaggio, the runner on third, said that he had turned to Indians' third baseman Al Rosen and said, "You know, Al, I think he's going to bunt." Al replied, "I know he is."
Lemon knew it too. On the 0-1 pitch, DiMaggio took off for home. Lemon fired a pitch he was certain Rizzuto couldn't bunt, high and tight. Rizzuto somehow got the bat on it anyway, laying it down on the grass between the third base line and the mound. By the time Lemon had picked up the ball, DiMaggio was already across the plate with the winning run. Lemon flung the ball into the stands.
Taking a still longer view, in 1920 the Indians held off the newly Ruth-powered team, taking the pennant by two games over the White Sox, who had crashed when their best players were banned from baseball late in the season, and three games over the Yankees. They finished a close second to Yankees pennant winners in 1921 and 1926 before fading from the scene during the rest of the 20s and the entirety of the 1930s.
THE HEAD TO HEADS: We've kept the stats simple this time, opting for a simple comparison of rates. The last column, "EQA," represents Equivalent Average, a Baseball Prospectus.com stat that sums up a hitter's total offensive contributions in one number that scales the way batting average does: .265 is about average, .300 is very good, .220 is very bad.
CATCHER | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Victor Martinez | .301 | .374 | .505 | .292 |
| Jorge Posada | .338 | .426 | .543 | .322 |
The battle of the switch-hitting catchers and two of the best hitters at their positions. Martinez faded a little in the second half, batting .273/.364/.447, which 95 percent of teams would be thrilled to accept from their catcher. Reasonably patient, Martinez's walk totals are padded by 12 intentional passes. After Mike Myers was released, the Yankees never found another situational lefty. Such pitchers are overrated, but if Martinez comes up in a key situation, Joe Torre may miss having a southpaw option. Martinez is a legitimate switch-hitter, but has a more robust swing from the left side. Ron Villone was largely reserved for trash-time long relief this year, but Torre would be wise to try him in the lefty spot role. It's a role Villone has rarely filled, but in his career he's held lefty hitters to .241/.347/.359 (.239/.311/.343 this year).
Posada capped an unusual career by peaking at 35. Chances are that has no projective value whatsoever, but we're talking about the playoffs, not next year. He hit .395/.511/.632 in September. ..In his career, Posada has been stronger swinging from the right side, but this year he thrashed all comers without prejudice. ...After years of struggling to throw out baserunners, Martinez allowed the lowest stolen base percentage of his career this year. Posada's throwing game regressed, and opposition basestealers were as aggressive against Posada as any catcher in baseball.
EDGE: Yankees, but it's very close.
FIRST BASE | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Ryan Garko | .289 | .359 | .483 | .279 |
| Doug Mientkiewicz | .277 | .349 | .440 | .266 |
Last season, Garko the Barbarian emerged as an alternative to the Ben Broussard-and-a-righty platoon the Indians had been using at first base for the last several years. A former catcher, Garko is not a great defender. He alternated good months and bad with the bat in 2007. He hit just .252/.335/.392 with runners on, though it wouldn't pay to read too much into that. As American League first basemen go, he's at an acceptable but no-frills level of production.
When Mientkiewicz hit the DL in June, he was hitting an offense-killing .226/.292/.379. Upon returning, he hit .429/.510/.619 in 51 September plate appearances. Given his solid defense, the presence of groundballers like Chien-Ming Wang on the pitching staff, and how poorly Jason Giambi hit over his last 30 games (.159/.310/.305), there isn't much of an argument that Mientkiewicz should start in the playoffs.
EDGE: Indians, on the understanding that Minky probably doesn't have another week of channeling Ted Williams in him.
SECOND BASE | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | .283 | .354 | .421 | .265 |
| Robinson Cano | .306 | .353 | .488 | .277 |
After being rushed to Triple-A in 2006 and having a miserable season, in 2007 the 21-year-old Cabrera got his first taste of Double-A and discovered he could hit. A brief trip back to Buffalo followed. Overall, .310/.380/.448 in the minors. The Indians called him up on August 8 to rescue them from Josh Barfield, who had a career-destroying season (.242/.270/.324) at 24. Cabrera is strong on the glove side (or as George Lucas might put it, with the glove side), and this combined with his league-average bat makes for quite the nice package. If he grows with the stick over the next few years, the Indians will have a borderline All-Star at the keystone.
Writing about Cano last winter, I said, he "Earned plaudits for his improved defense... Even if he settles in at his career rates (.319/.342/.490), the Yankees have an immensely valuable property on their hands, but, below that, his lack of patience will start to tell." That was pretty much the story for 2007; Cano hit around his career rates, making up for a few lost points of batting average with a few extra walks, and his defense continued to be strong. At this stage it's safe to say that Cano is a second-half player. Last year he jumped from .325/.353/.439 before the break to .365/.380/.635 (i.e. Rogers Hornsby territory) after. This year, he hit .274/.314/.427 before the break, .343/.396/.557 after. If you're a Yankees fan, you hope it's not too cold in Cleveland this week.
EDGE: Yankees.
THIRD BASE | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Casey Blake | .270 | .339 | .437 | .260 |
| Alex Rodriguez | .314 | .422 | .645 | .339 |
Casey Blake is neither a great hitter nor a great fielder, but he had immense value to the Indians because he saved them from another year of trying to establish eternal prospect Andy Marte in the major leagues and enduring a replacement-level performance. He's a streaky gamer who could hit .200 or .500 in the series.
Alex Rodriguez is the presumptive AL MVP, and that's really all that need be said, though we'll throw in the interesting but probably insignificant fact that he did most of his damage against right-handers this year, hitting "only" .272/.432/.529 against southpaws... There is probably more pressure on Rodriguez in this series than any other player, as once again his standing as a "true Yankee" will be put to the test.
EDGE: Yankees, in a big way.
SHORTSTOP | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Jhonny Peralta | .270 | .341 | .430 | .260 |
| Derek Jeter | .322 | .388 | .452 | .284 |
These players are on different pages of the same catalog, the one where you can order offense-first/defense-second shortstops. Peralta is the entry-level model, Jeter the luxury vehicle. Thanks to injuries, Jeter's second half wasn't what his .343/.421/.461 April-May seemed to portend, and the improvements he made on defense over the last couple of years also vanished. That is not to say that he was less than a great asset. Peralta did most of his hitting in the first half, most of it at home, much of it against lefties. All seem to come standard with Peralta. It's symbolic of the failures of the Indians' platoons in left and right field that after the three impact players, Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner, plus first baseman Garko, Peralta is their next best hitter.
EDGE: Yankees.
LEFT FIELD | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA | |
| Kenny Lofton | .313 | .386 | .452 | .244 | |
| Jason Michaels | .287 | .359 | .441 | .243 | |
| Johnny Damon | .270 | .351 | .396 | .263 |
For Lofton/Michaels, the stats above are given versus right-handers and left-handers respectively, though EqA represents their overall contribution to the Indians. Lofton's EqA with the Rangers was .286. This pairing wasn't particularly productive, but at least the Indians were able to tread water after David Dellucci went down for the season in June. Hideki Matsui had his knee drained over the weekend, which should keep him at designated hitter for now. That's okay; the Yankees are a better defensive team with Damon in left. Damon batted .296/.364/.450 in the second half, numbers close to his career averages.
EDGE: Yankees.
CENTER FIELD | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Grady Sizemore | .278 | .390 | .463 | .290 |
| Melky Cabrera | .273 | .327 | .391 | .248 |
Sizemore is quite similar to Curtis Granderson of the Tigers, a center fielder with power, speed, patience (Sizemore is the more selective of the two), and a ton of strikeouts. Cabrera was batting .300 as late as August 14 (.300/.352/.449), but from there to the end of the season he hit .206/.265/.245 with no home runs. That span represents a full quarter of the season. Cabrera remains a better hitter from the left side of the plate than the right. A lefty, most of Sizemore's home run power comes against right-handers (The Yankees' motto for this series may turn out to be "Ron Villone or Bust").
EDGE: Indians.
RIGHT FIELD | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA | ||
| Trot Nixon | .256 | .352 | .345 | .238 | ||
| Franklin Gutierrez | .330 | .366 | .553 | .262 | ||
| Bobby Abreu | .283 | .369 | .445 | .278 |
After a May that looked a lot like Melky Cabrera's September, Abreu hit .309/.396/.520 over the rest of the season (107 games). Torre selectively platooned him in the second half, as he struggled against lefties. For this reason, Shelley Duncan (.303/.378/.606 vs. lefties in 38 plate appearances) is likely to start against C.C. Sabathia in Game 1. Nixon gives every impression of being done; Gutierrez is the superior fielder and hitter at this point at least against lefties.
EDGE: Yankees.
DH | AVG | OBP | SLG | EQA |
| Travis Hafner | .265 | .385 | .449 | .285 |
| Hideki Matsui | .285 | .367 | .488 | .285 |
A very disappointing season for "Pronk," who was slowed by injuries and a long contract negotiation. Hit .316/.414/.551 in September, and he's fully capable of doing it again in the playoffs Hafner hit .308/.419/.611 from 2004-2006. Matsui finished the season in a major slump. After batting .339/.396/.602 in July-August, hit .185/.343/.346 in September. Matsui is one of the rare lefties who isn't bothered too much by lefty pitching, which is helpful given that Indians reliever Rafael Perez held lefties to .145/.209/.241 during the season. Was Matsui's slump just a slump, or was it the knee? Will he be all better now? It seems as if Hafner is more likely to be Hafner than Matsui is to be Godzilla.
EDGE: Indians.
THE SCORE SO FAR: 6-3 Yankees. HEAD TO HEAD PITCHERS TOMORROW ON THE BLOG SIDE.
BOSTON BOUND
There's still so much baseball to talk about. Today, Tuesday, at 7 p.m., I'll be at the Boston University Barnes & Noble to talk about the playoffs, the bizarre finish to last night's playoff game, and sign copies of book It Ain't Over. Red Sox fan, Yankees fan, guacamole fan, I hope to see you there. The address:
660 Beacon Street
Boston, MA
See you there.
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