YES Network.com

This last bit is the only regrettable bit of news. Nieves is younger than Pratt, though not young-he's 29-so he technically is the better long-term buy. Yet, whatever his defensive skills, the man cannot hit. He will not hit for power, will not walk, will not hit for average. Pray for Jorge Posada's health.

I will qualify the foregoing to the extent that backup catchers, with their limited playing time, can occasionally ride a random hot streak to an impressive season line. If Nieves finishes the season with a .359 average in 101 at bats, the fact will be that he still can't hit, but that the forces in the universe that govern luck will have decreed that a whole series of fielders trip, stumble, pull hamstrings, suffer strokes, and get the sun in their eyes when Nieves puts the ball in play.

There is a real opportunity for Josh Phelps to expand his role with the Yankees. Doug Mientkiewicz can't hit, Phelps can, at least a little, and Joe Torre seems to have been struck by his abilities. Phelps seems set to play against Scott Kazmir on opening day. This is not necessarily a good thing-on May 2, 2005, Andy Phillips played against Kazmir and had one of his trademark five strikeout days (you hope he got a refund on his bat from that game, since it was never used). Ostensibly the platoon first baseman at that moment, Phillips was buried by Torre after that game. He couldn't have vanished any more thoroughly had Billy Mumy wished him into the corn field. Ye be fairly warned, Josh Phelps. Still, if he can navigate the assignment and hit well in his first starts, he could very annex some of Mientkiewicz's playing time.

No doubt some of this Phelps forecast is wishful thinking, but a greater part of it is based on a close reading of Torre's comments and simple logic-there is only so long the Yankees will stay in denial about Mientkiewicz if presented with another option. The rest is up to Phelps.

The final composition of the pitching staff has yet to be revealed. If you wanted to bet a sawbuck that Colter Bean is headed back to the sticks you wouldn't be taking an inordinate risk.

All in all, today is a good day for the Yankees. It wasn't business as usual. The sentimental, veteran choices were sent home for relative unknowns. None of the three players who made the roster today have anything like star potential, but they could be better than the men they replaced, and that's all that really matters. For once, a long resume didn't count for more than what the players actually did on the field. It was a great day for clear-eyed, cold-blooded realism in pinstripes. The Yankees may or may not win a championship this year, but they have a better chance than in any recent season just because they're going to be honest about their problems and move decisively to address them. All the old crutches have been thrown away.

AND THERE WILL BE MORE FROM ME...
Both before and after Monday's opening day excitement. It's finally, finally here. As John Fogarty sang, "We're born again-there's new grass on the field." Hallelujah. CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

THURSDAY, March 29: Posted at 2:56 p.m. ET

THE MARKET GETS JUMPY
Darrell Rasner is good! He's good again! He's still good! Now he's bad! Really bad! Wait! He's good again!

The spring training season is highly compressed, but it's not that compressed. It lasts six weeks, long enough to eliminate the possibility of any one game to be determinative for any hitter or pitcher. If Rasner got blown up on Wednesday, if Andy Phillips struck out four times the day before, the previous month of work shouldn't be invalidated. After the game, in which Ron Villone was also abused, Joe Torre supported him on the basis of work he did last year. If that can still be a point in Villone's favor, then work Rasner did last week should be fair game as well. You wonder, though, if the veteran-lovin' Torre doesn't have a bit of a double-standard in operation when it comes to these kinds of evaluations.

Okay-you don't wonder. You know it's there. He's been here since 1996; there's no reason to be coy about the man's preferences and prejudices.

NOT MUCH TO ADD...
...To the mainstream media accounts of the Steve Swindal situation. If you're a fan, you want this sorted out, because in the past, the brief periods the Yankees haven't had strong ownership have been characterized by drift. I'm referring principally to the years when the Yankees were owned by Jacob Ruppert's estate before Larry MacPhail/Dan Topping/Del Webb bought the club, and the years of corporate ownership under CBS. Certainly a return to corporate ownership would change the way the club operates, deemphasizing winning while trying to expand the profit margin, which of course in the long run is self-defeating. If you want a preview, check out the Braves under Time-Warner. They killed that dynasty dead.

Beyond that, we'll refrain from comment. It's a family matter, it's a legal matter, it's none of our business.

THE MIENTKIEWICZ SUSHI BET
I have entered into a wager with Jay Jaffe, proprietor of www.futilityinfielder.com and BP contributor, about how long Doug Mientkiewicz will hold his job with the Yankees. Jay contends he will be replaced by Memorial Day. I argue that his spring training performance has set the bar so low that any hitting he does in April, any at all, will be regarded as progress and this will earn him a stay until at least the All-Star break. In retrospect I should have said the trading deadline, but so be it. A sushi dinner rides on the outcome... Now it's personal. I will not give up the tuna maki.

REY ORDONEZ?
Let's give that two more question marks: Rey Ordonez??? The Mariners are a poorly-run franchise, but unless Mike Hargrove plans to do a Dick Williams 1970s A's thing and use three shortstops a game without ever letting any of them hit, there is simply no rationale for giving a bench spot, or any spot for that matter, to Rey Ordonez. This has got to win the annual Strange and Self-Defeating Spring Training Move award. CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

WEDNESDAY, March 27: Posted at 6:05 p.m. ET

YOUR MISSION, MR. PHELPS, SHOULD YOU CHOOSE TO ACCEPT IT...
By now you've seen the results of yesterday's game, along with the key lines: Josh Phelps, 2-for-4 with a home run; Andy Phillips 0-for-4 with four strikeouts. These came against Boof Bonser who is not Sandy Koufax (and yes, that works both ways-Phelps didn't homer off of Koufax either). Phillips (or more specifically his mother) got a bad break this spring, and that's something everyone can empathize with, yet if Phelps is not awarded the job based on performance then the whole competition was a lie. Phillips essentially suffered an injury at the moment of competition-in this case the injury was not "hamstring" or "shoulder" but "family." If you fall over during a race, or don't show up for the race at all, that doesn't make the guy who finished first any less a winner.

The ironic thing about all of this Phelps/Phillips/Doug Mientkiewicz stuff we've been through this year is that the Yankees still lack a long-term solution at the position. These fellows are stopgaps at best. Unless Eric Duncan resuscitates his career at Scranton (possible but unlikely), the Yankees don't have a promising prospect at the position. The best player on the current list of 2007-2008 free agent first basemen is Sean Casey, which is a lot like saying there are no free agent first basemen at all.

With luck the first baseman that Brian Cashman will be forced to trade for at the end July will solve the problem until the Yankees can develop a first sacker of their own.

GUEST-STAR DAY AT BRONX BANTER
Alex Belth and Cliff Corcoran (full disclosure: these are good friends and colleagues and I wouldn't have it any other way) run www.bronxbanter.baseballtoaster.com. Banter was already the best Yankees blog out there, but of late it's been souped up with some really impressive cameos. Yesterday, Allen Barra, one of sportswriting's great absurdists (and another good friend), dropped by with gems like these:

I think part of the problem [with Alex Rodriguez] is confusion - Yankees fans seem to think he's someone else. Every game I go to they react as if he's Lou Piniella. If I'm not mistaken, everyone yells out, "LOOOOOUUU! LOOOOOUUU!" Personally, I think Lou Piniella ought to clear up the situation by posing for a picture with A-Rod so everyone can see the difference.

This is very much what spending an afternoon with Allen is like-there's no scenario he can't spin a half-dozen, slightly off-kilter ways. We need more writing like this, especially in the hyper-serious realm of A-Rod Studies.

GHOSTS OF GRAND CENTRAL STATION
Yesterday, after training into the city on Metro-North-an experience to be avoided-I realized I was late for lunch and headed down to the Grand Central food court for a sandwich. It wasn't the first time I've eaten at the station-heck, I've had business luncheons at some of the nicer restaurants upstairs-but this was the first time that it ever struck me as to how strange it was to do that. Not too long ago, Grand Central was a place to hurry through if you had to be there at all.

I was struck by a memory of walking there with my father when I was quite young. The building seemed to be crumbling around the lost souls who had entered the twilight world of the main concourse, never to exit. As we crossed under the vaulted ceiling, moving past the clock, I was frightened when an old woman shuffled towards me, hand extended. Her hair was long and matted, grey shocked with white. She wore a long, formless blue-grey shift, perhaps a hospital gown of some sort, and her feet were bare. Her skin was mottled and sclerotic, and her eyes were crazed in a dull way. She had no teeth.

When she opened her mouth to speak-the extended hand suggests she intended to ask for money-the sound that issued was not speech, but a long, guttural moan. I was perhaps six or seven years old, and I had never seen or heard anything more like a ghost. I was mesmerized. Her fingers nearly brushed my sleeve, and I remember the further shock of my father yanking me away. It took me a long time to get the vision of her out of my head, and judging by yesterday's flashback, I never totally succeeded.

It is amazing how much the City has changed. The woman in the gown was very much of her time, of the New York City of that day. She must be 30 years dead, but she's still here, or almost here. The line between that sinking, corrupt Atlantis and our own gleaming metropolis is so thin that you can touch it by reaching through something as insubstantial as a memory. Civilization is always balanced on the head of a pin, the broken remains of fallen cities all around it. It would be so easy to fall off again, and see the spectral beggar woman of my childhood nightmares climb from her nameless grave and live again. CLICK HERE TO COMMENT

MONDAY, March 25: Posted at 2:25 p.m. ET

YOU DON'T KNOW WHERE YOUR PILLOW LIES
I'm home now, however momentarily. By the time you read these words I'll be on my way to New Haven and Yale University for more baseball talk, and then I'm going back to Columbia University for the second time in a week for a panel discussion (details on both below). It's wonderful to talk at so many schools that wouldn't have had me as a student. I've got one more appearance next week and then I'm going to be off the radar for awhile, sleeping, writing, going on a vision quest as I figure out where my bliss lies. As Benjamin Franklin might have said, "It's about the pursuit of happiness, Johnny! The pursuit of happiness!"

I can never figure out why he keeps calling me Johnny, but it's good to hear from him nonetheless.

It's a dangerous thing, traveling, when so much has been happening for the Yankees. Chien-Ming Wang's leg is torn off by a polar bear, or maybe it isn't and he'll be back sooner than expected. Jeff Karstens is seemingly elevated to the starting rotation, then he tries to pitch through a stiff elbow and gets predictable results. Next thing you know, Dave LaPoint will be trying out for a spot in the rotation.

In truth, Darrell Rasner should be a bit better than Dave LaPoint, LaPoint rarely being capable of posting a league average ERA during his career. Rasner's strikeout rate may be a bit low. He'll need some good defense behind him to have any consistency, and he won't be challenging for the Cy Young Award, but he's a viable back of the rotation guy and shouldn't dent the Yankees chances. Certainly he can stand in for Chien-Ming Wang for a start or three and keep the Yankees in those games.

It's amazing how quickly pitching depth can evaporate. At this writing, it's not certain what Jeff Karstens' outlook is-he could be gone for two weeks or two months, depending what the Dungeon Master rolls on the 20-sided die. We'll hear about the MRI later today. It is important to remember though, as we pine away for the new Christy Mathewson, that Karstens is not anything of the kind. With health, he could be an effective major league starter, but the ability to miss bats that portends future dominance just isn't there.

What Phil Hughes does in his first few Triple-A starts now takes on added importance. As if there could be more pressure on the lad. As Kevin Goldstein has correctly observed, Hughes has nothing left to prove at the minor league level as far as pitching. Now he has to show that he can handle the pressure of being Phil Hughes, and that's a different matter altogether.

TO THE MATS WITH READER MAIL
It's long past time to climb into the ring...

1: MOVIES/MIENTKIEWICZ
I love the Pinstriped Blog and especially dug your piece on The Miracle of Morgan's Creek, but what gives — no mention of The Lady Eve?
—Matt

P.S. Is Mientkiewicz this year's Tony Womack? Dooley Womack?

For the record, I think Mientkiewicz is twice the player Womack is, or was. Mientkiewicz is a below-average hitter for a first baseman, but above-average at getting on base as far as the general player population goes. Mientkiewicz also had two seasons, 2001 and 2003, where he was actually a valuable player. Womack never really had that season.

My failure to mention The Lady Eve (starring Henry Fonda, Barbara Stanwyck, and, again, William Demarest) among the great films of Preston Sturges was pure oversight on my part. I know I intended to, but somehow when I went to type the list I dropped it. An excellent, excellent film, just for the number of dinner jackets that Fonda soils.

2: MORE MIENTKIEWICZ
Have you even thought the day Mientkiewicz and the backup catcher (any one of the three possibles) have to play in the same game? When that day comes, can you still say the Yankees have "enough offense?" That's almost an inning of automatics. I totally agree with you that there is no such thing as "enough offense." Best regards.
— José

I've mentioned it a bunch of times, José. Jorge Posada has been exceptionally durable as catchers go, but he still misses roughly 25 games a year on scheduled days off and occasional muscle tweaks. That means that if he stays healthy, the Yankees will devote a whole month of the season to the reserve catcher. The bottom of the order will have two soft outs in Mientkiewicz and the catcher, and that will make for some quick innings. If Posada has to spend any time on the DL, the Yankees will suffer, and Brian Cashman might be forced to make a trade under pressure.

3: GREAT EXPECTATIONS (MINKY AS PIP)
Questions on Doug Mientkiewicz and my expectations for him entering 2007 season? I don't really care about Doug's batting avg. and his performance in Spring Training which are lousy so far. Four things I only care about and my expectations for Doug Mienkiewicz are follows.

1. Must find a way to get on base, and either get walks or hit by pitch but don't strikeout.
2. Utilize and work on his bunting skills
3. Steal bases and be aggressive by putting the ball in play.
4. Play superior defense at first
—Jen

Thanks for writing Jen. In order:
1. Over the last three years, Mientkiewicz has posted a .335 on-base percentage. The league average in that period has been about .340, so he's a little below average. If he hits as he did last year (.283/.359/.411) he'll at least be functional in this department, though not exceptional. He has decent patience and doesn't strike out much, but you shouldn't be overly sensitive to batter strikeouts, which are just another kind of out. There's actually a tradeoff for Mientkiewicz's ability to make contact-he hits into an above-average number of double plays.
2. Minky has never been a big-time bunter, and in the American League, in this era, there is really no reason for him to be. Except in select circumstances, a sac bunt is just a friendly way of giving a free out to the defense. Sorry to plug yet another book by the BP guys, but our Baseball Between the Numbers does a spectacular job of explaining when a bunt is merited and when it's not.
3. No stolen bases, sorry. He's swiped 14 bags in his career while being caught 15 times. As you might guess, this is not a good rate, and it would be far better for the Yankees if the first base coach keeps him home on those rare times he drops by. Parenthetically, very few first basemen are base-stealers. If they're fast enough to steal, they probably have the speed to play a more challenging position. With the exception of the occasional Darin Erstad or Von Hayes, who were really outfielders pushed to first by the needs of their team, the only recent first baseman who also was something of a base-stealing threat was Jeff Bagwell. "Putting the ball in play" is a separate topic, one which sort of conflicts with your desire that he walk a lot. Again, there's a downside to putting the ball in play, which is that fielders get to make plays on it. In this century, major league batters have hit into a double play in about 13% of their chances to do so. Over the last three years, Mientkiewicz's rate has been about 15%, so he's hit into double plays at a slightly higher frequency than his peers.
4. Superior defense: he's not what he was back in 2001, but assuming his back surgery didn't cause a permanent reduction in range he should be okay.

4: AN ALTERNATIVE TO MINKY-OCRITY
I came across Justin Huber's profile in the BP annual today & it occurred to me that he might be an interesting, cheap 1B option if the Yankees are shopping for a new one mid-season. Certainly would come cheaper than what the M's were reportedly asking for Sexton. Huber's PECOTA is roughly comparable to Phelps' (higher OBP, slightly lower SLG) & better than Phillips', but it seems that of the three, Huber has the best upside: the BP write-up beneath his stats suggests that he underperformed last year because he was jerked around like a yo-yo. So his PECOTA may be a bit on the conservative side. Then again, the Yankees organization probably isn't the place that would allow such a prospect to settle in & feel comfortable.
—Louis

Louis, I can't figure out exactly why the Royals have buried Huber, a prospect they stole from the Mets for Jose Bautista back in 2004. One wonders if there's something going on there beyond the numbers. While the acquisition of a young first baseman would be a good thing for the Yankees, Huber seems an unlikely choice. The team hungers for a glove at the position, and whatever Huber's strengths as a hitter, as a defensive first baseman he's just a converted catcher. Given his offense and defensive profiles, you wonder if it's too late for the Royals' decision to change his position to be reversed; he's just another guy as a first baseman, but as a catcher every team in baseball would be clamoring to trade for him.

THE PLACE WHERE MY FEET ARE (AGAIN)
Today: Jay Jaffe and I will be at the Yale University Barnes & Noble (77 Broadway, New Haven, Connecticut) at 6 PM.

Tomorrow: Alex Belth, Neil deMause, Jay Jaffe, Derek Jaques, Joe Sheehan and myself will be talking before the Sports Business Association of the Columbia University. The time is 5:45-8:00, the location is Uris 140 on the campus of said University. Seating is extremely limited, and if you'd like to come you should RSVP to one CBouchard07@gsb.columbia.edu.

Next week: On April 4, I'll be at 302 Broome Street in New York City, reading with Jonah Keri, Curt Smith, and Cor van den Heuvel at the Gelf Magazine Varsity Letters Reading Series. I'll be taking some bits from the BP annual, some from "Forging Genius." Doors open at 7:30 PM. See http://www.gelfmagazine.com/gelflog/archives/april_4_varsity_letters_reading_series.php for time and place details.